IS OFFSET DEAD?

Twenty-five years ago, nobody could have predicted that offset press technology would be in the predicament it now finds itself. First came analog high-speed production copiers from Xerox and Kodak that, within a decade or so, would take away virtually all black-and-white jobs. Then the Xerox Docutech, the first high-speed digital copier/printer product, single-handedly changed the way documents were produced and distributed.

The production of color documents has been slower to migrate from the press. Despite the introduction of digital laser color copiers fifteen years ago by Canon, they have largely been relegated to convenience and/or proof applications. Meanwhile, digital front ends (CTP and DTP) have allowed most shops to move toward digital technology and reduce labor costs.

We view the productivity gains from CTP and DTP as only partial victories for production facilities, however. With a host of excellent new high-speed electrostatic products and technology variations available to the commercial and in-plant printer, we believe the days of offset are numbered, especially for run lengths of 5,000 and under.

This article will explore the reasons for this viewpoint, and what buyers can do to plan for the inevitable digital future.

Primary Digital Drivers

What are the most important factors that enable production managers to comfortably replace a technology they have depended on for decades? Digital laser device manufacturers are heavily promoting a feature referred to as "personalization" (mail merging) as a key differentiator between offset and digital. Research tends to show that readers respond more positively to one-off documents personalized to their individual data. Since each copy/print is made individually in a high-speed electrostatic unit, personalization is perfectly tailored to digital products. Production managers must, however, not just accept the industry-promoted notion that personalization might make printed documents more effective without asking the tough question: will print personalization improve the loyalty of our client base?

When looking at your run lengths, be sure to consider which jobs are printed in bulk for subsequent storage. Waste may be an important factor in comparing costs on offset versus digital alternatives because a good percentage of stored printed matter can become outdated or otherwise useless when it comes time to put the material to use. Why not consider printing shorter run lengths on a digital product, eliminating pre-press setup time and reducing waste?

The Trade-Offs

The nay-sayers of high-speed digital color devices point to high static per-impression costs and low output quality relative to offset. Although we agree there is some merit to these assertions, costs for digital are falling and quality is improving. Digital proponents, on the other hand, emphasize higher labor costs, longer job setup times and high plate costs (approximately $40 for four plates) for offset, making short-run work less attractive for these devices.

Impact On Acquisition Methodology

As digital imaging devices evolve to take over commercial and in-house print production in the coming years, management needs to adjust the way the products are acquired. As printers, we were proud to buy offset presses outright, since we expected the equipment to easily last a decade or more. The same is not true, however, of digital equipment, at least not yet. We implore buyers who are thinking of "buying" digital equipment to consider "cost per impression" (CPI) acquisition programs instead. CPI programs allow the organization to install new equipment every three-to-five years and thus always stay ahead of the technology curve.

Combo Color/Monochrome Devices Coming Soon?

There is still talk from manufacturers about how close they are to making a combination color/monochrome output device that doesn’t compromise on speed, functionality or price. Don’t get your hopes up that this will happen anytime soon, however, and certainly don’t delay investing in needed technology today. We heard the same talk five years ago. The products touted by manufacturers today that provide both black-and-white as well as color printing/copying are glorified color digital copiers. Sure, you can print or copy in black-and-white on these devices, but at what cost? Be certain that the cost-per-page is similar to that for your production duplicator before you commit.

Remaining Offset Niches

What then are the remaining niches for traditional offset presses? Practically nobody would argue that run lengths in excess of 5,000 are more profitable on a press. Although ink yields are hard to accurately measure, when labor, equipment and service costs are divided by the total impressions produced, we have found that the cost-per-impression for such jobs on a press are less than half of that for a laser color output device. However, over-5,000 run-length jobs comprise less than fifty percent of the total jobs in most production facilities, and the percentage is getting lower each year due to the continued advancements made with digital technology.

Implications For Buyers

We believe that the scales have tipped in favor of digital technology for production black-and-white and color printing. But do we recommend that you, as the production manager or business owner, should go out and immediately replace all offset equipment? Not at all, if offset is working in your current production process scheme, there is no reason to buy new technology for technology’s sake alone.

So, for production runs of under 5,000 is offset dead? New product introductions and refinements from Heidelberg (the Nexpress 2100), Xerox (2045 and 2060), Indigo, Xeikon and Canon (CLC 5000), among others, lead us to believe that the answer is "yes." And, since the quality, speed and substrate advantages formerly enjoyed by offset are narrowing each year, don’t be surprised if your ability to buy new offset equipment starts to become extremely difficult within the next decade. Our guess is that offset equipment manufacturers will be very hard-pressed to justify manufacturing equipment with such rapidly shrinking demand.